Guyana’s oil economy remains key driver of regional growth

Guyana’s lucrative oil economy will continue to be a major contributor to regional economic growth, even as the country’s expansion is projected to slow this year.
This was stated by Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) Director of Economics, Ian Durant, as he presented an overview of the Caribbean’s 2024 performance and the region’s 2025 trajectory at the CDB’s Annual News Conference on Wednesday.
“Guyana was again the standout performer, with the economy surging by 43.5 per cent, fuelled by increased oil production and continued expansion in its non-energy sectors. As a result, when we include Guyana’s performance, regional growth rises to 8.8 per cent in 2024, up from 6.6 per cent in 2023, highlighting the country’s significant influence on regional economic growth,” the director noted.
He pointed out that most Caribbean nations were experiencing moderate recovery from severe economic shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused major supply chain disruptions, high inflation, and geopolitical tensions.
Haiti, in particular, remains in crisis, grappling with political instability, escalating gang violence, and high inflation, resulting in its sixth consecutive year of economic contraction.

For most other countries, growth was moderate, with commodity-exporting nations such as Trinidad and Tobago and Suriname continuing their gradual recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, service-exporting economies—many of which have surpassed pre-pandemic output levels—grew at a slower pace of 1.6 per cent in 2024, down from 2.8 per cent in 2023, as economic activity returned to more normal patterns.
Tourism remained a key driver of growth, with 6.8 million stay-over arrivals recorded in the first three quarters of 2023. More than half of the CDB’s member countries have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels, with some even setting new records.
Looking ahead, however, regional growth is expected to remain moderate in 2025, excluding Guyana. The CDB projects regional growth of 2.5 per cent, with performance varying across borrowing member countries.
Durant stated that Guyana’s economic expansion is expected to slow to 11.9 per cent following its rapid growth in 2024.
“Nevertheless, the country’s performance will remain a key contributor to the region’s economic growth. Hence, when including all 19 borrowing member countries, the region is forecast to grow by 4.6 per cent,” he noted.
Last year, Durant highlighted that higher oil production in Guyana was a significant driver of average regional growth in 2023. Production increased by 35.2 per cent, influencing growth in non-energy sectors and contributing to an overall expansion of Guyana’s economy by 32.9 per cent.